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The 3D Revolution Is Coming

By Fei on January 29, 2010

By Melissa J. Perenson
January 29, 2009

SAN FRANCISCO – 3D is back. And this time, it’s making a big statement. The concept isn’t new, of course–the first 3D motion picture dates back to the turn of the twentieth century. But a growing string of recent Hollywood releases, cemented by the runaway success of Avatar , has returned 3D to our cultural consciousness.

For the first time, though, 3D is being positioned not just for theatrical and professional venues but also for homes. Few observers expect this sea change to happen overnight–but it is coming.

The consumer electronics industry has been putting the elements for a 3D revolution into place surprisingly quickly. Every major manufacturer has revealed its 3D plans for 2010, with most companies setting a summer launch for their 3D-enabled televisions. Summer will also see 3D-enabled Blu-ray players. For filmmakers, a 3D camera will arrive in the fall: Panasonic’s $21,000, professional-grade Full HD camcorder will be able to record video from each of its twin lenses to SDHC cards.

Broadcasters are getting into the act, too. BSkyB is among the networks working on 3D channels. ESPN’s channel, launching in June, will show 85 sporting events in 3D. And Sony is partnering with Discovery and Imax to have a 3D channel by 2011.

Film content is already available, and will be growing thanks to the Avatar effect. Last year 17 3D films came out; more than a dozen such titles are scheduled for 2010. And 2011 will likely be a banner year for 3D movies as Hollywood rushes to replicate Avatar’s success.

3D’s Growing Appeal

Since 3D theatrical releases routinely earn more revenue than their 2D counterparts, it’s no shock that Hollywood and the consumer electronics industry are eager to bring 3D into the home. And the focus isn’t just on movies: 80 percent of PC games are currently available in 3D.
“Consumers are willing to pay more money to watch a movie in 3D than to watch it in 2D,” notes Jennifer Colegrove, director of display technologies at DisplaySearch, citing 3D’s immersiveness. “So [manufacturers] are naturally thinking about 3D for the home–on a computer, a notebook, a TV, a mobile phone.”

Research into what consumers want has begun in earnest. Sony is partnering with CBS to study what audiences expect from home 3D. Last year the Consumer Electronics Association and the Entertainment Technology Center released a study in which 50 percent of surveyed consumers said they would pay more for a 3D TV; 40 percent of the respondents preferred 3D to 2D.
We don’t know how much companies will charge for 3D TVs (or content). Clearly, 3D represents a new revenue stream, and consumer electronics makers will put some premium on it (simply because they’ll have 3D on their top-tier products). But industry executives have told me that they are aware of the risk of stifling 3D’s prospects if they price it into the stratosphere.

Another factor that might hold back 3D’s potential is the “dorky” image of 3D glasses. Special glasses are a requirement for all variations of the active-shutter technology that television makers are using. RealD is providing glass technology to a number of TV manufacturers, but the eyepiece design may vary dramatically. Right now, there’s no guarantee that glasses will be compatible across manufacturers (though the Consumer Electronics Association is trying to get companies to agree on this point). The glasses won’t be cheap, either–and 3D-enabled TVs may not ship with them by default. So far, only Sony’s top-of-line Bravia LX900 HDTV will come packaged with two pairs of glasses.

Few experts see 3D claiming a big chunk of the market. According to DisplaySearch, just over 1 million 3D-ready TVs will ship in 2010 (representing 0.1 percent of total shipments); by 2018, the number will be 64 million (20 percent of the market). That’s less than the CEA’s estimate of 4.3 million 3D-capable TV sets shipping in 2010. DisplaySearch expects 3D-ready monitors to grow to 10 million by 2018 (3.6 percent penetration), and it foresees a similar trajectory for 3D laptop systems. Mobile phones will be the largest 3D-display shipment by 2018, with 71 million units, DisplaySearch predicts.

The challenge will be to get hardware into homes. “It’s about presenting enough of a compelling story to get people excited about buying new equipment,” says Rick Dean, chairman of the 3D@Home Consortium and VP of strategic development for THX. “New Blu-ray players are required. New displays are required. But it’s not just about how we’re going to deliver 3D content; it’s about the user experience.”

Not Just New Movies

Blu-ray Disc will play a big role in the 3D revolution. In December, the Blu-ray Disc Association finalized its spec for Blu-ray MVC, a 3D “multiview” codec extension to the existing AVC H.264. Though Blu-ray players seem to have dropped enough in price to start replacing DVD players by default, the arrival of 3D models could extend the disc format’s relevance.
Hollywood studios have been a bit quiet about their 3D Blu-ray plans, but a few deals have been announced. Disney says it will have a 3D version of A Christmas Carol out by the fourth quarter of 2010. And DreamWorks and Samsung have announced a deal with Technicolor to replicate content in 3D.

Blu-ray Disc Association president Andy Parsons notes that not everything will get the 3D treatment. He says that he expects 2D to coexist with 3D. “We’re positioning 3D not as a replacement for but a complement to 2D,” he says.

While Parsons expects studios to search their archives for classics that they can transcode as 3D, the conversion may not be possible across the board. “It remains to be seen if a way can be found to convert 2D content into 3D in a way that comes close to what’s being done in the theaters today.”

Big-Name 3D HDTVs and Disc Players Coming Soon

The following 3D products are headed to stores this year. Companies haven’t set pricing, and some have yet to discuss plans for bundling glasses.

Due in Summer 2010

Panasonic

- Viera TC-P50VT20 and Viera TC-P50VT25 (50 inches)
- Viera TC-P54VT25 (54 inches)
- Viera TC-P58VT25 (58 inches)
- Viera TC-P65VT25 (65 inches)
- DMP-BDT350 Blu-ray player

Sony

- Bravia XBR-LX900 series (40, 46, 52, and 60 inches)
- Bravia XBR-HX900 series (46 and 52 inches)
- Bravia HX800 series (40, 46, and 55 inches)
- BDP-S770 Blu-ray player
- BDV-HZ970W home theater unit
- PlayStation 3 (firmware upgrade)

Release Date Unannounced

- Infinia LE9500 (47 and 55 inches)

Samsung

- UNxxC9000, UNxxC800, UNxxC700, and PNxxC7000 (TV sizes not yet announced)
- BD-C6900 Blu-ray player

Toshiba

- ZX900 “Cell TV”
- BDX3000 Blu-ray player

Vizio

- XVT Pro Series (47, 55, and 72 inches)

Yes Reggie, Wii Netflix Without HD is a Problem

By Fei on January 19, 2010

By Matt Peckham
January 19, 2009

SAN FRANCISCO – Dear Nintendo, while I respect your president Reggie Fils-Aime’s decision to shrug off the Wii’s inability to do high-definition video as “no loss” in an interview with CNBC, I’m not sure you’re taking the long view.

And if recent HD usage survey results are accurate, you probably should be.

According to a November 2009 Knowledge Networks survey, 43 percent of people “watch HD programs every day,” up from just 26 percent in 2007. That’s a 65 percent increase in two years, significant enough to lead Knowledge Networks’ president to note “This sends a message to advertisers that HD is becoming the new norm for those with HD access across all program types.”

People apparently–and increasingly–want high-definition content. And you know what? Yes, only part of Netflix’s total catalog may be HD-ready today, but what…you think Netflix plans to wait for the Wii to catch up with an HD part? Care to wager how much Netflix’s HD library is going to grow in 2010 alone?

Think about your competition. Microsoft and Sony offer HD streaming content today. Both have deals with Netflix (Microsoft’s is integrated, but even Sony’s disc-based program includes the HD option). Yes, you need a fast connection to qualify for a high-def feed, and no, it still doesn’t look as immaculate as full-on Blu-ray (or for those of you who haven’t switched, HD-DVD–requiescat in pace). But it’s clearly a superior option, and for people slowly (or does that survey now imply ‘quickly’?) awakening to the perquisites of HD video, possibly even a deal-breaker.

Which means:

If you already have a 360 or a PS3, Netflix on the Wii isn’t a reason to buy one. If you have a 360 or a PS3 as well as a Wii, it’s not a reason to use the Wii (unless you want to service another room somewhere). And if you have none of the above but want to buy a Netflix compatible, HD-ready console that complements your existing high-def TV setup, your options are Microsoft or Sony, not Nintendo.

Reggie Fils-Aime’s response in that CNBC interview:

The vast majority of content that’s available for streaming on Netflix is not HD content, so there really is no loss for the Wii consumer, the fact that they can’t get any HD content through our system.

Accurate but shortsighted. As noted, Netflix’s HD development plans are hardly in stasis. But what’s worse, Fil-Aime has to go and conflate two spectacularly different forms of entertainment:

The consumer has voted, over 26 million consumers have bought a Wii. So the consumer is saying that the quality of the visual is not nearly as important as the overall entertainment, the overall value of that experience.

Earth to Nintendo: Movies aren’t games (last I checked, Netflix wasn’t streaming Mario or Donkey Kong). You don’t interact with a movie or TV show the way you do New Super Mario Bros or Wii Fit Plus. Video’s value is its visual content. And in that particular game, speaking as an unabashed videophile, HD matters–more each day.

Avatar: good news for 3D TV and Blu-ray?

By Jon on December 21, 2009

By Jeff Bertolucci
December 21, 2009

There’s little doubt that James Cameron’s much-hyped Avatar will be a hit during its theater run, but what impact will the sci-fi epic have on 3D entertainment in the home?

“Avatar,” which cost north of $300 million to make, uses state-of-the-art 3D filmmaking techniques to create a visually stunning alien world. The spectacle, rather than the story, is the selling point here, and you can bet that Hollywood will churn out similar fare to capitalize on the 3D craze.

3D at Home?
But will the 3D trend extend to home entertainment, too? In recent months, the consumer electronics industry has been working behind the scenes to build the framework for 3D in the home. The Blu-Ray Disc Association this week announced specifications for creating full 1080p 3D Blu-Ray content. The first 3D-enabled Blu-ray players will likely debut at the Consumer Electronics Show in January.

Meanwhile, major TV manufacturers are hoping 3D TV becomes the next big thing. Sony, for instance, predicts that 3D sets will compose 30-50% of all the TVs it sells in its 2012 fiscal year.

Avatar’s Impact on 3D Blu-ray
Blu-ray’s movers and shakers are optimistic that “Avatar” will whet consumers’ appetites for home 3D.

“While I have not seen the movie yet myself, I have read enough rave reviews to believe that it could transform a lot of skeptics into 3D believers,” writes Pioneer executive Andy Parsons, chairman of the Blu-ray Disc Association, in an e-mail interview with PC World US.

“We have always said that Blu-ray, as was DVD before it, is a content-driven business. With many of the studios now putting enormous resources and creative energy into 3D for the theater, it’s only a matter of time before consumers will be striving to achieve a similar experience in their own homes,” Parsons adds.

Avatar’s 3D: Gimmick or Godsend?
Granted, “Avatar” packs a visual wallop. But 3D movies are hardly new. “House of Wax,” a 1953 horror flick with Vincent Price, had a 3D version, as have other movies over the past few decades. So what’s different this time? And how will the new 3D revolutionize home entertainment?

“3D is not some sort of gimmick in this new generation of films — it’s being used to completely change the storytelling experience. I read one Avatar review yesterday where the reporter said that after the film ended, he felt as if he had actually visited the location of the film instead of having just watched it from a distance,” writes Parsons, who says he’s heard similar reactions from viewers of recent 3D films like Disney/Pixar‘s “Up.”

The hope is that 3D Blu-ray can create the same immersive experience, and that new, high-quality 3D movies like “Avatar” and “Up” will create consumer demand.

Early Adopters (Guinea Pigs)
But are 3D flicks enough to drive home adoption of 3D entertainment systems, which would require a significant consumer investment, including a new HDTV set, a 3D Blu-ray player, a few pairs of 3D glasses, and (for a truly immersive experience) surround-sound speakers?

“If the published content is engaging enough, and the experience is fun enough, I think the next time consumers are ready to buy a TV, they will seriously consider one that can reproduce 3D on Blu-ray,” write Parsons, who stressed there’s no guarantee that recent 3D flicks will appear on 3D Blu-ray anytime soon. (But it’s a safe bet they will at some point.)

Blu-ray with 3D would certainly appeal to early adopters first, the same risk-takers who invested in HDTV a few years back. If it succeeds there, 3D Blu-ray would then migrate to the mass market.

“A good number of the early adopters may be ready to move their first HDTV into another part of their homes, and upgrade to a newer, better set with 3D. Most U.S. households have more than one SDTV in them, so I think HDTV can follow a similar path,” Parsons adds.

OK, but what about those clunky 3D glasses? We’d have to wear those at home, right?

Yes, but that may change eventually. “There are a lot of technology hurdles to get over first,” Parsons writes. “Glasses will probably be part of the equation for quite a while. Perhaps making them less clunky could be a market opportunity for some companies.”

YouTube’s most watched videos of 2009

By Jon on December 18, 2009

By JR Raphael
December 18, 2009

Susan Boyle may not have won the top spot in “Britain’s Got Talent,” but the big-voiced Brit has just achieved a far more impressive feat: Her video has taken the title of most watched clip on YouTube in 2009.

YouTube released a list of its most popular videos of the year, taking into account aggregated views from all over the globe. And while Boyle’s inaugural television appearance was the most harmonious of the bunch, the other hot commodities were no less theatrical.

Here’s the full list of YouTube’s most watched videos of 2009.

5. Evian Roller Babies
With more than 27 million views under its belt, this creative commercial for Evian water certainly grabbed the world’s attention. No word yet how many diaper changes were involved.

4. New Moon Movie Trailer
Surprise, surprise: A lot of people watched the trailer for the Twilight saga’s New Moon movie. Thirty-one million, to be exact. Granted, even more people probably gazed at the assets in Christian Serratos’s revealing PETA ad — but that’s another story altogether.

3. JK Wedding Entrance Dance
YouTube helped a small wedding make a big splash this year. Jill and Kevin, a couple from Minnesota, busted a move as they walked down the aisle — in fact, the entire wedding party got pretty jiggy, nuptially speaking. The wacky dancers went viral, attracting thirty-three million eyeballs over the course of ’09.

2. David After Dentist
A drugged-up little dude soared high on the YouTube charts, pulling in 37 million views worldwide. David, a seven-year-old boy, spouted off all sorts of nonsense following a trip to the dentist. Do his amusing antics warrant the massive merchandise and public speaking business that’s sprung up since the video’s success? God no. But at least they kept that Fred guy from being in this year’s top five.

1. Susan Boyle – Britain’s Got Talent
As promised, the saucy Miss Boyle belted her way into YouTube’s most-watched spot for 2009. The clip of Boyle’s first appearance on “Britain’s Got Talent” garnered a whopping 120 million views across the world. Who’s the master of the house now?

Blizzard & Legendary Pictures sign Sam Raimi to direct Warcraft movie

By Jon on July 23, 2009

Blizzard Entertainment Inc. and Legendary Pictures announced today that Sam Raimi has signed on to direct the eagerly-anticipated major motion picture based on Blizzard Entertainment’s award-winning Warcraft universe. Raimi has, in the course of his career, clearly demonstrated a genius for developing and adapting existing fictional universes for mainstream audiences while staying true to the spirit of the original content.

Raimi directed the Spider-Man trilogy, which has broken box-office records around the world and garnered five Academy Award nominations. Known for his imaginative filmmaking style, richly drawn characters and offbeat humor, Raimi wrote and directed the cult classic, The Evil Dead and produced 30 Days Of Night. He most recently wrote and directed the supernatural thriller, Drag Me To Hell.

“At its core, Warcraft is a fantastic, action-packed story,” said Raimi. “I am thrilled to work with such a dynamite production team to bring this project to the big screen.”

Charles Roven’s producing talents were recently seen with last summer’s blockbuster The Dark Knight, which grossed in excess of $1 billion, was nominated for eight Academy Awards and won two. His body of work also includes the widely acclaimed Batman Begins and the sci-fi classic 12 Monkeys. Roven, with Atlas producing partner Alex Gartner, will be producing with Legendary Pictures CEO Thomas Tull, Legendary’s chief creative officer Jon Jashni, Raimi and Raimi’s producing partner Joshua Donen. Raimi’s partner, Robert Tapert, will be an executive producer and Blizzard Entertainment’s senior vice president of Creative Development, Chris Metzen, a co-producer.

“Partnering with Sam Raimi exemplifies Legendary’s mandate of marrying the highest quality intellectual property to world-class filmmakers” said Legendary’s Tull. “Sam’s passion for ‘Warcraft’ is undeniable and we know that he will create an incredible film worthy of Blizzard’s phenomenal franchise. We look forward to collaborating with our partners at Warner Bros. and continuing our successful relationship with Chuck in bringing this rich new world to the screen.”

“Blizzard Entertainment and Legendary Pictures have a shared vision for this film and we searched at length to find the very best director to bring that vision to life,” said Paul Sams, chief operating officer of Blizzard Entertainment. “From our first conversation with Sam, we could tell he was the perfect choice. Sam knows how to simultaneously satisfy the enthusiasts and the mainstream audience that might be experiencing that content for the first time. We’re looking forward to working with him to achieve that here.”

“Blizzard Entertainment’s Warcraft has become a second home for millions of players and Sam’s experience and talent make him the perfect director for this remarkable and action-packed world,” said Atlas’ Roven. “Alex and I are proud to be working with Sam and re-teaming with our friends at Legendary and Warner Bros.”

The film will fall under Legendary Pictures’ co-production and co-financing deal with Warner Bros. “Warcraft is emblematic of the kind of branded, event films for which our studio is best known. We have enjoyed great success with our partners at Legendary, and this is an incredible opportunity for us to work with Sam on a project that is so eagerly anticipated by so many,” said Jeff Robinov, President, Warner Bros. Pictures Group.

Blizzard Entertainment’s Warcraft universe is a rich fantasy setting that revolves around the epic conflict between the opposing forces of the Horde and the Alliance. Since its debut in 1994, Warcraft has developed a loyal following across the globe, with several bestselling, award-winning PC games and a range of popular licensed products including novels, action figures, apparel, comic books, board games, and more. World of Warcraft, Blizzard Entertainment’s subscription-based massively multiplayer online role-playing game set in the Warcraft universe, is the most popular game of its kind in the world. Its most recent expansion, Wrath of the Lich King, is the fastest-selling PC game of all time, with more than 2.8 million copies sold in its first 24 hours of availability and more than four million in its first month.

Further details about the upcoming Warcraft movie, including cast and targeted release date, will be revealed as development progresses.