SAN FRANCISCO - “The netbook is not an experience people are going to continue wanting to have,” Apple COO Tim Cook said Tuesday at an investment conference in San Francisco. “When they play with the iPad and experience the magic of using it… I have a hard time believing they’re going to go for a netbook.”

Magic, huh? So that’s how Apple says its iPad is going to best much more functional business netbooks in the marketplace.

I’d been wondering, since the iPad’s specs and features won’t do it. Instead, Apple says a “magic” user experience will convince netbook users to dump those machines and use an iPad instead.

Well, I guess once you believe in magic–as Tim Cook apparently does–anything seems possible. And if the iPad doesn’t sell, I suppose Cook could create some zombie customers to make purchases. Based on initial consumer response to the device’s announcement, that’s what it may take for iPads to replace business users’ netbooks.

Cook does make one good point, that once people play with a netbook they like the reality less than the concept. Of course, the same may be said about the iPad, given that people liked it less after it was introduced than before. The Apple tablet is scheduled to ship next month.

Personally, I find this whole iPad vs. netbook comparison more than a little specious. A netbook is a real computer, if an underpowered one, that benefits from having a keyboard and the same operating system as most users’ desktops.

Most netbooks lack touch screens, but many can show a motion picture in 16:9, something the iPad cannot do. Some netbooks are getting improved graphics, which should help them outperform an iPad, too. Overall, netbooks are becoming more attractive as they evolve, not less.

But, the comparison between iPad and netbooks really doesn’t make sense. While there is an overlap in some functionality, my bet is that users will choose the tool they need, iPad or netbook, magic or no.

I’d be very surprised if iPad sales came at the expense of netbooks, or vice versa. In some ways, a netbook can do a lot more than the iPad, but the experience will certainly be different. If a supersized iPod Touch can do it, then the iPad might make sense.

But, real business users want real business computers, which may be a netbook and probably won’t be an iPad. If Apple wants to compete with netbooks, it should just build one. I’d probably buy it.

SAN FRANCISCO - That sound you’ve been hearing–that soft “swooshing” in the distance–isn’t anything important. It’s just the sound of Palm circling the drain. For despite having had excellent carrier support from Verizon and Sprint, as well as good products, the company has once again failed to gain any real traction in the marketplace.

Let me make this really clear: There is no reason for anyone to purchase a Palm smartphone that makes sense, save a few people who hate Apple, Android, and BlackBerry with equal passion. All three competitors are better choices than a Palm Pre Plus or Pixi Plus.

Though a sentimental favorite and hard worker, Palm faces challenges that have only become tougher since its relaunch last summer.

Now, the Wall Street Journal is out with a story that suggests the inevitableness of Palm’s predicament. In the nicest way possible, it says Palm, with a mere 0.7 percent of the smartphone market, compared to 14.4 percent for Apple and Research In Motion with 20 percent, simply can’t catch up.

It also includes quotes from analysts who are reducing their sales projections, devaluing the company’s stock rating, and suggest the channel finds it easier to sell Palm’s competitors.

If Palm ever had a real window of opportunity–and that is certainly debatable–it is closing rapidly.

As devices running Google’s Android smartphone OS gain momentum, Palm simply has nowhere to turn. Tepid developer support, plus what seems like a lack of carrier attention span, leaves potential customers with few reasons to choose a Palm Pre or Pixi or, for that matter, whatever else Palm comes out with.

In retrospect, the race was really decided before Palm really got going last summer. The company had to count on competitors making mistakes for it to make inroads.

Apple, meanwhile, has jumped from strength to strength, BlackBerry has remained a winner, and though slow to catch-on, Android is clearly everyone’s other choice. And many users’ first choice.

I was hoping to end this piece with some helpful suggestions for Palm, but short of paying developers to create perhaps 10,000 applications this month, and next month, and every month, or getting Apple to support Palm devices in iTunes, I don’t see any future where Palm survives.

The best hope is for some company that needs a smartphone to purchase Palm and go from there. I just don’t know what company that would be. So, Palm will likely soldier on for another year or two. There will be new products, just no sales.

Eventually, Palm will run out of money and the flushing will be complete.

SAN FRANCISCO - One of the biggest stories of the Mobile World Conference was the unveiling–finally–of Windows Mobile 7, rebranded as Windows Phone 7. The story within the story is how Microsoft abandoned the foundation established with the waning Windows Mobile platform, went back to the drawing board, and started from scratch for the latest incarnation of its mobile operating system.

The result is a completely new mobile platform from Microsoft which, at least from initial feedback and reviews, seems to be worthy of further consideration once Windows Phone 7 devices start hitting the streets.

Given the delays experienced by Microsoft in developing Windows Phone 7, expectations were high. Any minor, incremental improvement on the existing platform would have been virtually guaranteed to fail.

Microsoft’s approach with Windows Phone 7 seems to borrow some from the Apple business model that has proven so successful with the iPhone. Like Google, with the Nexus One, Microsoft is reining in oversight of the hardware for Windows Phone 7 devices.

Microsoft has been accused of stealing a variety of design elements and features from Apple over the decades, but one thing it has steered clear of is emulating Apple’s strict control of the end-to-end user experience. However, with Windows Phone 7, Microsoft seems to be embracing that philosophy to some degree.

Traditionally, the best Windows Mobile phones have been the devices built by HTC, and the reason they have been the best is because HTC took the Windows Mobile platform as a foundation, and branded it with its own unique design and interface elements. With Windows Phone 7, Microsoft has spelled out strict hardware and software design guidelines that will restrict such unique development by HTC, but hopefully deliver a more consistent experience for Windows Phone 7 users regardless of manufacturer.

By exerting more control over the hardware and software specifications, Microsoft can ensure that apps developed for Windows Phone 7 will not only work, but will work the same way, across all Windows Phone 7 devices. That level of consistency across Windows Phone 7 devices will help to increase adoption and improve perception of the Windows Phone 7 platform.

What Google seems to have learned from Apple–the same lesson that Microsoft appears to be grasping as well–is that maintaining control of the end-to-end user experience creates a more stable environment for developers to work with, and enables it (Google, Microsoft, or Apple as the case may be) to maximize the potential of the operating system without being handicapped by variations in capabilities from one handset to the next.

Of course, one of the things customers have come to expect from Microsoft is a more open and flexible platform than what Apple offers. Users want the ability to configure and customize their Windows devices–whether PC’s or smartphones–and typically abhor the sort of “dummy-proof-our-way-or-the-highway” approach taken by Apple.

IT administrators enjoy the increased flexibility and capabilities of a more open platform like Windows Phone 7 or Android. One of the issues standing in the way of Apple iPhone adoption in the enterprise is the lack of control provided for IT administrators to be able to configure and manage the devices the way they would like to.

Businesses stand to benefit from the more consistent user experience of Windows Phone 7 as well, though. Rather than having to test and develop for each individual Windows Mobile handset in use, any configuration settings or custom apps will be able to function regardless of the Windows Phone 7 devices in use.

Windows Phone 7 appears to be a significant departure from previous Windows Mobile operating systems. At first glance it seems the Microsoft is heading in the right direction and could recapture some of the lost market share of the waning Windows Mobile platform. We’ll have to wait until the Windows Phone 7 devices hit the streets to see how it really plays out.

SAN FRANCISCO - Apple has increased the cap for downloads over 3G networks on the iPhone from 10MB to 20MB, in what some think is a sign of heavier multimedia content appearing for the upcoming iPad.

By now, every time you wanted to download a podcast or application from the App Store that was over 10 MB, you got an annoying message asking you to use Wi-Fi because the file was too large. But not anymore.

Apple lifted the 10MB cap, only to double it to 20MB, which should be a more reasonable figure for video and podcast downloads when out of Wi-Fi range. If you try to download files over 20MB though, a message will prompt you to switch to Wi-Fi.

Besides giving iPhone users a wider variety of content they can download over 3G networks, the cap increase may be a sign that the iPad will require larger file downloads over 3G because of higher resolution graphics and more complex applications.

The initial 10MB cap was put in place so that iPhone downloads won’t put too much strain on wireless networks, such as AT&T, which is . For example, AT&T iPhone tethering, which would produce even more traffic on the network, hasn’t been adopted yet, despite operators around the world enabling the option.

But despite difficulties with the AT&T network, Apple decided to forge a deal for 3G connectivity with the carrier again, this time for the 3G-enabled iPads arriving late this spring. Also, Sling Player 3G streaming has been enabled on the iPhone this week, after AT&T allegedly held back this feature because of fears of increased traffic.

AT&T must be under pressure to keep up with Apple’s traffic-demanding products because the carrier’s exclusivity with the iPhone in the U.S. is soon coming to a close.